Order estimation and discrimination between stationary and time-varying (TVAR) autoregressive models

Copyright © 2007 IEEEFor a set of T independent observations of the same N-variate correlated Gaussian process, we derive a method of estimating the order of an autoregressive (AR) model of this process, regardless of its stationary or time-varying nature. We also derive a test to discriminate between stationary AR models of order m,AR(m), and time-varying autoregressive models of order m,TVAR(m). We demonstrate that within this technique the number T of independent identically distributed data samples required for order estimation and discrimination just exceeds the maximum possible order mmax, which in many cases is significantly fewer than the dimension of the problem NYuri I. Abramovich, Nicholas K. Spencer, and Michael D. E. Turle

Modified GLRT and AMF framework for adaptive detectors

©2007 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. However, permission to reprint/republish this material for advertising or promotional purposes or for creating new collective works for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or to reuse any copyrighted component of this work in other works must be obtained from the IEEE."This material is presented to ensure timely dissemination of scholarly and technical work. Copyright and all rights therein are retained by authors or by other copyright holders. All persons copying this information are expected to adhere to the terms and constraints invoked by each author's copyright. In most cases, these works may not be reposted without the explicit permission of the copyright holder."The well-known general problem of signal detection in background interference is addressed for situations where a certain statistical description of the interference is unavailable, but is replaced by the observation of some secondary (training) data that contains only the interference. For the broad class of interferences that have a large separation between signal-and noise-subspace eigenvalues, we demonstrate that adaptive detectors which use a diagonally loaded sample covariance matrix or a fast maximum likelihood (FML) estimate have significantly better detection performance than the traditional generalized likelihood ratio test (GLRT) and adaptive matched filter (AMI') detection techniques, which use a maximum likelihood (ML) covariance matrix estimate. To devise a theoretical framework that can generate similarly efficient detectors, two major modifications are proposed for Kelly's traditional GLRT and AMF detection techniques. First, a two-set GLRT decision rule takes advantage of an a priori assignment of different functions to the primary and secondary data, unlike the Kelly rule that was derived without this. Second, instead of ML estimates of the missing parameters in both GLRT and AMF detectors, we adopt expected likelihood (EL) estimates that have a likelihood within the range of most probable values generated by the actual interference covariance matrix. A Gaussian model of fluctuating target signal and interference is used in this study. We demonstrate that, even under the most favorable loaded sample-matrix inversion (LSMI) conditions, the theoretically derived EL-GLRT and FL-AMF techniques (where the loading factor is chosen from the training data using the EL matching principle) gives the same detection performance as the loaded AMF technique with a proper a priori data-invariant loading factor. For the least favorable conditions, our EL-AMF method is still superior to the standard AMF detector, and may be interpreted as an intelligent (data-dep- endent) method for selecting the loading factor.Yuri I. Abramovich, Nicholas K. Spencer, Alexei Y. Gorokho

Time-varying autoregressive (TVAR) models for multiple radar observations

©2007 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. However, permission to reprint/republish this material for advertising or promotional purposes or for creating new collective works for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or to reuse any copyrighted component of this work in other works must be obtained from the IEEE.We consider the adaptive radar problem where the properties of the (nonstationary) clutter signals can be estimated using multiple observations of radar returns from a number of sufficiently homogeneous range/azimuth resolution cells. We derive a method for approximating an arbitrary Hermitian covariance matrix by a time-varying autoregressive model of order m, TVAR(m), that is based on the Dym-Gohberg band-matrix extension technique which gives the unique TVAR(m) model for any nondegenerate covariance matrix. We demonstrate that the Dym-Gohberg transformation of the sample covariance matrix gives the maximum-likelihood (ML) estimate of the TVAR(m) covariance matrix. We introduce an example of TVAR(m) clutter modeling for high-frequency over-the-horizon radar that demonstrates its practical importanceYuri I. Abramovich, Nicholas K. Spencer, and Michael D. E. Turle

GLRT-based threshold detection-estimation performance improvement and application to uniform circular antenna arrays

©2006 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. However, permission to reprint/republish this material for advertising or promotional purposes or for creating new collective works for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or to reuse any copyrighted component of this work in other works must be obtained from the IEEE."This material is presented to ensure timely dissemination of scholarly and technical work. Copyright and all rights therein are retained by authors or by other copyright holders. All persons copying this information are expected to adhere to the terms and constraints invoked by each author's copyright. In most cases, these works may not be reposted without the explicit permission of the copyright holder."The problem of estimating the number of independent Gaussian sources and their parameters impinging upon an antenna array is addressed for scenarios that are problematic for standard techniques, namely, under "threshold conditions" (where subspace techniques such as MUSIC experience an abrupt and dramatic performance breakdown). We propose an antenna geometry-invariant method that adopts the generalized-likelihood-ratio test (GLRT) methodology, supported by a maximum-likelihood-ratio lower-bound analysis that allows erroneous solutions ("outliers") to be found and rectified. Detection-estimation performance in both uniform circular and linear antenna arrays is shown to be significantly improved compared with conventional techniques but limited by the performance-breakdown phenomenon that is intrinsic to all such maximum-likelihood (ML) techniques.Yuri I. Abramovich, Nicholas K. Spencer, and Alexei Y. Gorokho

Combined experimental and simulation studies of crosslinked polymer brushes under shear

We have studied the effect of crosslinking on the tribological behavior of polymer brushes using a combined experimental and theoretical approach. Tribological and indentation measurements on poly(glycidyl methacrylate) brushes and gels in the presence of dimethylformamide solvent were obtained by means of atomic force microscopy. To complement experiments, we have performed corresponding molecular-dynamics (MD) simulations of a generic bead-spring model in the presence of explicit solvent and crosslinkers. Our study shows that crosslinking leads to an increase in friction between polymer brushes and a counter-surface. The coefficient of friction increases with increasing degree of crosslinking and decreases with increasing length of the crosslinker chains. We find that the brush-forming polymer chains in the outer layer play a significant role in reducing friction at the interface

Results from the centers for disease control and prevention's predict the 2013-2014 Influenza Season Challenge

Background: Early insights into the timing of the start, peak, and intensity of the influenza season could be useful in planning influenza prevention and control activities. To encourage development and innovation in influenza forecasting, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) organized a challenge to predict the 2013-14 Unites States influenza season. Methods: Challenge contestants were asked to forecast the start, peak, and intensity of the 2013-2014 influenza season at the national level and at any or all Health and Human Services (HHS) region level(s). The challenge ran from December 1, 2013-March 27, 2014; contestants were required to submit 9 biweekly forecasts at the national level to be eligible. The selection of the winner was based on expert evaluation of the methodology used to make the prediction and the accuracy of the prediction as judged against the U.S. Outpatient Influenza-like Illness Surveillance Network (ILINet). Results: Nine teams submitted 13 forecasts for all required milestones. The first forecast was due on December 2, 2013; 3/13 forecasts received correctly predicted the start of the influenza season within one week, 1/13 predicted the peak within 1 week, 3/13 predicted the peak ILINet percentage within 1 %, and 4/13 predicted the season duration within 1 week. For the prediction due on December 19, 2013, the number of forecasts that correctly forecasted the peak week increased to 2/13, the peak percentage to 6/13, and the duration of the season to 6/13. As the season progressed, the forecasts became more stable and were closer to the season milestones. Conclusion: Forecasting has become technically feasible, but further efforts are needed to improve forecast accuracy so that policy makers can reliably use these predictions. CDC and challenge contestants plan to build upon the methods developed during this contest to improve the accuracy of influenza forecasts. © 2016 The Author(s)

Dethroning historical reputations: Universities, museums and the commemoration of benefactors

The campaigns in universities across the world to reject, rename and remove historic benefactions have brought the present into collision with the past. In Britain the attempt to remove a statue of one of Oxford’s most famous benefactors, the imperialist Cecil Rhodes, has spread to other universities and their benefactors, and now also affects civic monuments and statues in towns and cities across the country. In the United States, memorials to leaders of the Confederacy in the American Civil War and to other slaveholders have been the subject of intense dispute. Should we continue to honour benefactors and historic figures whose actions are now deemed ethically unacceptable? How can we reconcile the views held by our ancestors with those we now hold today? Should we even try, acknowledging, in the words of the novelist L. P. Hartley, that ‘the past is another country; they do things differently there’? The essays in this interdisciplinary collection are drawn from a conference at the Institute of Historical Research in the University of London. Historians, fundraisers, a sociologist and a museum director examine these current issues from different perspectives, with an introductory essay by Sir David Cannadine, president of the British Academy. Together they explore an emerging conflict between the past and present, history and ideology, and benefactors and their critics